What about our welfare?: Inclusion Scotland’s response to the UK Government’s Green Paper
Introduction
The UK Government’s decision to slash £5 billion from the welfare budget is nothing short of appalling. The choice to reduce welfare spending to focus on things like defence is a choice, and not a good one. Almost all the people affected by this will be disabled people. This is an ambush on disabled people and will push more disabled people and their households further into poverty.
This short paper explains the UK Government’s Spring Statement announced on 26 March 2025 and the Green Paper on ‘Pathways to Work’, and what these changes mean for disabled people in Scotland.
The Green Paper
The Green Paper on Pathways to Work published 18 March 2025, which can be found here, outlined the cuts to disabled peoples’ benefits, including the Personal Independent Payment and the Health Element of Universal Credit.
These changes are set to impact 3 million people. According to the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) own Impact Assessment, by 2030 there will be 250,000 additional people – including 50,000 children – pushed into poverty by these cuts. By 2029/30, there will be 3.2 million families who will lose out financially because of these policies – with the average loss at £1,720 per year (LBC article). The DWP assessment suggested that ‘the vast majority (96%) of families that lose financially have someone with a disability in the household.’ You can read more about this assessment here.
The Resolution foundation, in this article, has suggested that up to 1.2m people could lose between £4k and £6k per year by 2029 from PIP changes. This comes on the heels of the Joseph Roundtree Foundation’s statement that living standards will fall for all families by 2030 in the UK and that the average family will be £1,400 worse off annually. The full statement can be found here.
Backlash against Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, Liz Kendall’s announcements have been swift, with many people calling for higher taxation on wealthy UK citizens, rather than choosing to ‘balance the books on the backs of the poor.’
The Spring Statement
Cutting £5 billion from welfare and targeting Personal Independent Payments (PIP) will cause hardship and poverty for disabled people. Outlining the Spring Statement, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, announced that while the standard allowance for Universal Credit (UC) would ‘be increased from £92 a week to £106 a week by 2029-30’, health-related entitlements, which disabled people claim, for new applicants will be cut by 50% and then frozen. The rate will be frozen at £97 per week for existing recipients, and in 2026/27 it will be set at £50 per week for new claimants.
Our work at Inclusion Scotland, as well as research undertaken by the likes of Joseph Roundtree Foundation, Poverty Alliance, and Disabled People Against the Cuts, has highlighted how austerity, the pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis have had a terrible impact on disabled people. These new cuts will make a tough situation worse. Of that, there is no doubt.
The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) claimed that the Government’s original cuts in the Green Paper would not save as much money as expected. Yet, despite all the evidence of the appalling impact of the proposals the Spring Statement went even further.
Disabled People Against the Cuts (DPAC) posted an article from Inequalities, suggesting that the cuts are ‘deeper than they seem’. In reality, the savings from changes to PIP are actually between £7.9 – 9.1 billion, rather than the £4.9 billion quoted by the OBR. These higher figures are not being used by the UK government which shows a lack of transparency for how deep the cuts are, and how many people will be negatively impacted by these immoral changes. For a further explanation, find the full article here.
‘Economic Inactivity’ and Employment
One of the key messages set out in the Green Paper is that disabled people should be in work, and the current benefits system does not ‘encourage’ that. The government line of pushing those with ‘mental illness’ back into work is damaging and impacts those already experiencing poverty by increasing stigma and demonising disabled people.
UK Government sources have cited a need to review the benefits budget by pointing to the rise in mental illness claims for signing off from work. The UK government is using these statistics in an alarming way – to underpin the ‘moral and economic case’ for cutting benefits. This approach fails to consider that many disabled people want to work, but barriers make this difficult.
While support from the UK and Scottish governments in helping disabled people get into and stay in work is welcome, the emphasis on ‘encouraging’ disabled people is misleading. In Scotland, the disability employment gap (the gap in employment between disabled people and non-disabled people) is 30.3%pt, with 47.3% of disabled people unemployed. A leading cause for this is discrimination against disabled people and a lack of access to employment opportunities, as we said when cuts were first announced (you can read our press release here).
But what about Scotland?
While the plans for PIP are mainly an issue for England and Wales, there are still around 80,000 disabled people in Scotland waiting to be transferred to the Scottish Adult Disability Payment (ADP). Scottish Government aims to have moved all PIP claimants in Scotland onto ADP by January 2026. It is not clear whether the changes to PIP outlined in the Green Paper will impact ADP.
If the Scottish Government decides to stick to current plans for ADP, including who is eligible and how much they get, it could see a reduction in funding from the UK Government to Scotland to the tune of £94 million. This will affect the Scottish Government’s budget and planned welfare spending. If this occurs, there may be changes to the rates of payment which could push disabled people here further into poverty.
The dependency on the PIP assessment to get the health element of UC will also impact on disabled people in Scotland. The UK Government is removing the damaging Work Capability Assessment (one thing we agree with them on) that is currently used to assess people for the health element of UC. It remains unclear how ADP recipients will be able to claim this element of UC. You can learn more about the work capability assessment here.
Disabled people face additional costs for living, and if this aspect of UC is frozen and reduced, it will exacerbate existing issues and force disabled people further into poverty, affecting health outcomes, dignity, and freedom of choice. It will have on costs for services already heaving under pressure.
Disabled people, already facing tough decisions over food, energy, and everyday living costs, will struggle even more in the wake of these cuts. PIP is supposed to cover the additional costs of being disabled: extra energy used, equipment and social care support, for example. More information on additional costs for disabled people can be found here.
The Scottish Government’s Finance Secretary, Shona Robison, has responded to the Spring Statement by arguing this is a return to austerity, with ‘cuts being imposed on some of the most vulnerable people in our society.’ Going further, she said that the UK government is ‘expected to short-change Scotland’s public services’. The choice to cut welfare for disabled people to achieve this is ‘deplorable.’ This is the link to her full statement.
Final words
These cuts are immoral. Inclusion Scotland knows that these cuts and changes to benefits will have devastating consequences for disabled people. Alongside the loss of income and long-term poverty the idea that disabled people simply start work is a nonsense. We know that many disabled people cannot work, and those that can and want to are still greatly discriminated against when trying to get into and stay in work. Yes, there is ‘employability’ support, but it is not enough, and it cannot magic up suitable jobs and change employers’ attitudes by the time these changes hit.
The divisive rhetoric of disabled people as ‘scroungers,’ funded by the UK taxpayer, will only increase.
If the UK government continues to create a divisive environment around disabled people, employment, and welfare, it is possible that there will be a rise in hate crimes recorded against disabled people – which will have further impacts on the mental and physical health of the community.
What will Inclusion Scotland do?
We will fight against these changes alongside our members and other organisations who feel the same. We will urge the Scottish Government to take action to ensure that Scottish disabled people are not affected. We will keep working to educate employers about what their duties and practice in employing disabled people.
We are currently revitalising our Poverty Lived Experience Group – which will meet to discuss the issues facing disabled people experiencing poverty. If you wish to join this group, please email info@inclusionscotland.org.
Please find an Easy Read version of this response here – What About Our Welfare? – Easy Read
